ORGONAUT
Scenarios
Cost and velocity deltas

Cost and velocity deltas

Deltas show how a scenario differs from Live Baseline.

Use them to evaluate trade-offs before promotion.

What a delta means

A delta is the difference between:

  • Scenario value (proposed state)
  • Comparison value (usually Live Baseline, or the source scenario when the scenario was cloned from another scenario)

Positive and negative deltas are not automatically good or bad. Interpretation depends on intent.

The summary compares the scenario's latest available aggregate snapshot with the selected comparison source's latest available snapshot. For scenarios cloned from another scenario, the default comparison is that immediate source scenario; use the Live Baseline comparison option when you specifically want to compare against Live Baseline. The Live Baseline comparison still hides records inherited unchanged from the clone source. Archived scenarios stay pinned to their archive date so the comparison does not drift later.

Velocity uses the latest completed sprint with team velocity data for each side of the comparison. This keeps a freshly cloned scenario aligned with Live Baseline when the clone copied the same team sprint history, even if background aggregate rows for Live Baseline have not yet been rebuilt for that sprint.

Core delta lenses

Cost deltas

Use cost deltas to answer:

  • What is the monthly increase or decrease?
  • Which units drive most of the change?
  • Is the change aligned with expected capacity gains?
  • How much of the change is people cost, and how much is agent cost?

Monthly cost is split into People and Agents under the total on the scenario summary, and the scenario metrics diff shows people cost and agent cost as their own lines.

  • People cost uses each person's full-time salary or day rate, scaled by their contractual FTE and shared across their placements. A 0.8 FTE person on a €120,000 salary costs €8,000 a month.
  • Agent cost uses last month's actual agent spend when it has been recorded. Otherwise it forecasts from approved AI Solution deployments (recurring rate × quantity), each agent's usage run-rate, and any pay record on an agent. Proposed deployments are not costed until they are approved. See AI Solutions for how deployment forecasts are counted.

Velocity deltas

Use velocity deltas to answer:

  • Does delivery capacity improve in target areas?
  • Are we trading speed in one area for gains in another?
  • Is the velocity change plausible based on placement edits?

Capability and AI-solution deltas

When Capability Studio is available, scenario comparison also preserves changes to contextual capability assessments, ownership, mapped Work, measures and exact AI Solution deployments. Use the dedicated Capability detail for outcome-level interpretation; the general delta remains the structural audit of what changed.

Forecast AI costs remain distinct from team budgets and observed usage. They appear only with the separate cost permission and should be treated as modeled deployment inputs, not invoices or actual run rate. Approved deployment forecasts do count toward the agent cost line in scenario totals, so the saving from role changes and the cost of the agents that replace them sit side by side.

How to review deltas effectively

  1. Start with the scenario metrics diff hunk for headcount, FTE, monthly cost, and velocity.
  2. Use the changed records index to jump to the model families that explain the movement.
  3. Validate that structural edits, allocations, compensation, budgets, or cost-event summaries explain the metric shift.
  4. Document assumptions before decision meetings.

The delta page shows cost and velocity as changed diff lines rather than as a full report. Cost events are grouped by actor or profile, org unit, model, currency, and period so the review stays readable. Use the Activity log link on a changed record, or the Detailed logs link for the full scenario audit trail, when you need event-level detail.

Users without cost or metric permissions will not see the sensitive lines. In that case, ask someone with the right access to validate the hidden financial or velocity assumptions before promotion.

Decision framing

Use a simple decision frame:

  • Impact: What changes materially?
  • Confidence: How reliable is this estimate?
  • Trade-off: What did we gain and what did we accept?

This keeps reviews concrete and comparable across scenarios.

Common interpretation mistakes

  • Treating small delta movement as noise without checking structural causes.
  • Looking at cost without matching it to capacity/velocity shift.
  • Comparing scenarios with different scope and calling one "better" by default.

Practical review template

  • Scenario intent
  • Top 3 cost changes
  • Top 3 velocity changes
  • Known assumptions
  • Recommendation: promote, refine, or reject